Libya, the Game-Changer

March 31, 2011 4:38 PM

"The die is cast," said Julius Caesar, as he led his powerful army across the little Rubicon river towards Rome. By the Roman law of the time, it was illegal for a military leader to cross the river with an army, for it was a clear sign that a military coup against the Roman Republic was in process. When Obama ordered the launch of Tomahawk missiles towards Libya on March 19, 2011, another die was cast: the US, allied with France and Britain, was making war on the oil-rich North African nation.

Perhaps you remember the character Emily Litella on Saturday Night Live, played by the great Gilda Radner. Emily was famous for starting a fuss, then saying "never mind." Perhaps Obama, if he had started the war on Libya all by himself, would be saying, "never mind" right now. Obama, however, made a big point of not acting alone. Operation Odyssey Dawn was initiated in the name of NATO, the UN, and the "rights" of the "Libyan people." There is no "never mind." The die is cast. The dawn of an odyssey, as it were.

I am calling Operation Odyssey Dawn a game-changer because, in my opinion, it signals a seismic political shift: more strange bedfellows than one could have ever predicted. Formerly enthusiastic Obama supporter Louis Farrakhan has had a cow. The neoconservative Weekly Standard is all aglow with excitement. Florida Senator Marco Rubio is enthusiastically calling for regime change, while the Communist Party of the USA is not amused.

It's not the reaction of politicos that makes the operation a game-changer, however: it's the ultimate consequences. Here are just a few; there may be others even more far-reaching:

1. What will happen to Gaddafi? Will he take the hint and an early retirement? (I nominate one of the smaller Indonesian islands; Obama can call in a few chips.) Or will he act like, well, Gaddafi, and fight to the bitter end?

2. After Gaddafi, the deluge. If you liked Iraqi sectarian violence, the Hamas-PLO feud, and the fracas in Afghanistan, you'll love a battle for control of Libya. Perhaps the Muslim Brotherhood will stay out of it. Yes, but only if they are sufficiently distracted by the huge flocks of flying pigs in the Libyan sky. Will Britain and France have no opinion, even though they are sending troops in to die, because they are eager to heed Emily Litella's advice, "never mind?" And the Saudis? They leave me almost speechless. The best I can come up with about the Saudis is "Allahu Akbar."

3. But there's a humanitarian crisis, right? Could Obama have ignored it? I might be naive enough to believe that Obama is naive enough to allow himself to cross the Rubicon because of the "humanitarian crisis," or at least a desire to appear heroic. In my opinion, though, the humanitarian crisis began in the year 632 when Muhammad died and the Muslim armies began to let the good times roll (from their point of view.) The "humanitarian crisis" cover story for a North Atlantic-led "kinetic military operation" is good enough only for those gullible enough to believe it, of whom there are unfortunately too many.

4. Still, it's at least all transparent and out in the open, isn't it? Well, yeah, unless you are one of those kook conspiracy theorists who believes that the CIA engages in covert operations. Obama might have said, "never mind," to the CIA, but he didn't.

5. Get serious: it will all blow over soon, won't it? It took Mussolini from 1922 to 1934 to "pacify" Libya, and he was an out-of-the-closet fascist. Moreover, let's not forget that the well-armed Egyptian Army is in power right next door to Libya. The Egyptian Pharaohs ruled Egypt from around 3000 BC until it all blew over and the Greeks took control in 305 BC. That time, it took almost 2700 years for it all to blow over. During the time of the Pharaohs, Egypt was ruled for very brief periods by the so-called Libu. That's ancient Egyptian for, are you ready? Libyans. Allahu akbar indeed.